Correlation times in stochastic equations with delayed feedback and multiplicative noise
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We obtain the characteristic correlation time associated with a model stochastic differential equation that includes the normal form of a pitchfork bifurcation and delayed feedback. In particular, the validity of the common assumption of statistical independence between the state at time t and that at t-τ, where τ is the delay time, is examined. We find that the correlation time diverges at the model's bifurcation line, thus signaling a sharp bifurcation threshold, and the failure of statistical independence near threshold. We determine the correlation time both by numerical integration of the governing equation, and analytically in the limit of small τ. The correlation time T diverges as T~a(-1), where a is the control parameter so that a=0 is the bifurcation threshold. The small-τ expansion correctly predicts the location of the bifurcation threshold, but there are systematic deviations in the magnitude of the correlation time.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".