Predicting Regional Abundance of Rare Grassland Birds with a Hierarchical Spatial Count Model
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Grassland birds are among the most imperiled groups of birds in North America. Unfortunately, little is known about the location of regional concentrations of these birds, thus regional or statewide conservation efforts may be inappropriately applied, reducing their effectiveness. We identified environmental covariates associated with the abundance of five grassland birds in the upper midwestern United States (Bobolink [Dolichonyx oryzivorus], Grasshopper Sparrow [Ammodramus savannarum], Henslow's Sparrow [A. henslowii], Sedge Wren [Cistothorus platensis], and Upland Sandpiper [Bartramia longicauda]) with a hierarchical spatial count model fitted with Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are well suited to this task because they are able to incorporate effects associated with autocorrelated counts and nuisance effects associated with years and observers, and the resulting models can be used to map predicted abundance at a landscape scale. Environmental covariates were derived from five suites of variables: landscape composition, landscape configuration, terrain heterogeneity and physiognomy, climate, and human influence. The final models largely conformed to our a priori expectations. Bobolinks and Henslow's Sparrows were strongly sensitive to grassland patch area. All of the species except Henslow's Sparrows exhibited substantial negative relations with forest composition, often at multiple spatial scales. Climate was found to be important for all species, and was the most important factor influencing abundance of Grasshopper Sparrows. After mapping predicted abundance, we found no obvious correspondence in the regional patterns of the five species. Thus, no clearly defined areas exist within the upper midwestern United States where management plans can be developed for a whole suite of grassland birds. Instead, a larger, region-wide initiative setting different goals for different species is recommended.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".