Tipping Points Near a Delayed Saddle Node Bifurcation with Periodic Forcing
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We consider the effect on tipping from an additive periodic forcing in a canonical model with a saddle node bifurcation and a slowly varying bifurcation parameter. Here tipping refers to the dramatic change in dynamical behavior characterized by a rapid transition away from a previously attracting state. In the absence of the periodic forcing, it is well known that a slowly varying bifurcation parameter produces a delay in this transition, beyond the bifurcation point for the static case. Using a multiple scales analysis, we consider the effect of amplitude and frequency of the periodic forcing relative to the drifting rate of the slowly varying bifurcation parameter. We show that a high frequency oscillation drives an earlier tipping when the bifurcation parameter varies more slowly, with the advance of the tipping point proportional to the square of the ratio of amplitude to frequency. In the low frequency case the position of the tipping point is affected by the frequency, amplitude, and phase of the oscillation. The results are based on an analysis of the local concavity of the trajectory, used for low frequencies both of the same order as the drifting rate of the bifurcation parameter and for low frequencies larger than the drifting rate. The tipping point location is advanced with increased amplitude of the periodic forcing, with critical amplitudes where there are jumps in the location, yielding significant advances in the tipping point. We demonstrate the analysis for two applications with saddle node--type bifurcations.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
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Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it