Short-Run Deviations From Purchasing Power Parity (PPP): A Case Of Expectational Changes
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The theory of purchasing power parity was originally designed by Gustav Cassel in 1918 to make the simplified guess of two currencies exchange rate levels. The theory had a simple but convincing argument that the exchange rates tend to gravitate toward the ratio of purchasing powers of two currencies. However, the actual exchange rates can deviate from these expected values of purchasing power ratios. Recognizing the difference between nominal and real exchange rates, economic theoreticians have tried to comprise these deviations from the actual exchange rates and those expected to by the PPP theory. In this paper we hypothesize another explanation for deviations of exchange rates form those values that are expected by the PPP theory. When tested for the selected currencies, our explanation is suitable enough to maintain that the expected PPP for the U.S. and Canadian dollar rates and the U.S. dollar and German mark rate.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".