Shifting Thresholds: Rapid Evolution of Migratory Life Histories in Steelhead/Rainbow Trout,<i>Oncorhynchus mykiss</i>
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Expression of phenotypic plasticity depends on reaction norms adapted to historic selective regimes; anthropogenic changes in these selection regimes necessitate contemporary evolution or declines in productivity and possibly extinction. Adaptation of conditional strategies following a change in the selection regime requires evolution of either the environmentally influenced cue (e.g., size-at-age) or the state (e.g., size threshold) at which an individual switches between alternative tactics. Using a population of steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) introduced above a barrier waterfall in 1910, we evaluate how the conditional strategy to migrate evolves in response to selection against migration. We created 9 families and 917 offspring from 14 parents collected from the above- and below-barrier populations. After 1 year of common garden-rearing above-barrier offspring were 11% smaller and 32% lighter than below-barrier offspring. Using a novel analytical approach, we estimate that the mean size at which above-barrier fish switch between the resident and migrant tactic is 43% larger than below-barrier fish. As a result, above-barrier fish were 26% less likely to express the migratory tactic. Our results demonstrate how rapid and opposing changes in size-at-age and threshold size contribute to the contemporary evolution of a conditional strategy and indicate that migratory barriers may elicit rapid evolution toward the resident life history on timescales relevant for conservation and management of conditionally migratory species.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it