FLEDGING SUCCESS AS AN INDEX OF RECRUITMENT IN RED-WINGED BLACKBIRDS
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We used data from an 11-year study of Red-winged Blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) to test the hypothesis that fledging success is a reliable index of recruitment at the population and the individual level. Natal philopatry was only 2.37% overall (3.51% for males and 1.49% for females) in our study population. However, the number of fledglings that returned as breeding adults from an annual fledgling cohort was significantly correlated with the size of the cohort. The correlation was also significant when males and females were analyzed separately, despite sex differences in natal philopatry, age of first breeding, and probable differences in mortality factors. Recruitment increased disproportionately with the size of the fledgling cohort. Thus, years of high production produced proportionately more breeding adults. At the individual level, the number of fledglings sired by a male in his lifetime was significantly correlated with the number of his descendants that eventually returned to breed in the study population. These results support the widely held assumption in avian field studies that fledging success is a reliable index of fitness.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.014 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".