Changes in the Extremes in an Ensemble of Transient Climate Simulations with a Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean GCM
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The extremes of surface temperature, precipitation, and wind speed and their changes under projected changes in radiative forcing are examined in an ensemble of three transient climate change simulations for the years 1900–2100 conducted with the global coupled model of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis. The evolution of the greenhouse gases and aerosols in these simulations is consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 1992 scenario A. The extremes are analyzed in three 21-yr time periods centered at years 1985, 2050, and 2090. The model simulates reasonably well the extremes of the contemporary near-surface climate. Changes in extremes of daily maximum and daily minimum temperature are distinctively different and are related to changes in the mean screen temperature, soil moisture, and snow and sea-ice cover. Extreme precipitation increases almost everywhere on the globe. Relative change in extreme precipitation is larger than change in total precipitation. Extreme wind speed in the extratropics changes only modestly. Changes in duration of extended wet and dry periods are consistent with changes in total precipitation. There are temperature-related changes in cooling and heating degree days.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it