Is There A Periodically Collapsing Bubble In The Indian Real Estate Market?
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The study finds evidence in favor of Evans (1991) definition of periodically collapsing speculative bubbles in the Indian real estate market when the market is tested for a bubble by examining data from May 1, 2009, to May 30, 2012. Using consistent momentum threshold auto regressive (MTAR) model developed by Enders and Siklos (2001) with Chans (1993) methodology, this study finds evidence of co-integration as well as asymmetric adjustment toward long-run equilibrium, which is evidence of a periodically collapsing positive speculative bubble. However, except for the residuals-augmented DickeyFuller (RADF) test, none of the conventional tests such as the augmented DickeyFuller and the PhillipsPerron tests find evidence of a bubble.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.010 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it