Long-Terms Trends For Sea Ice In the Western Arctic Ocean: Implications For Shipping And Offshore Oil And Gas Activities
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Over the past decade there have been dramatic reductions in the areal extent of sea ice in late summer over the Arctic Ocean. For sub-regions in the western Beaufort Sea (off Alaska) and the deeper offshore waters of the Canadian sector of the Beaufort Sea, the trend towards reduced total ice concentrations in late summer ranges from -11.4 and -7.3% per decade, respectively, which is comparable to the reduction of -11.1% per decade in overall Arctic Ocean during late summer. In the central Canadian Arctic sub-regions through the Northwest Passage, the trends in total ice reduction are smaller at +1 to - 6 percent per decade. The trends computed for old ice can be quite different from that of total ice concentrations. In the western “chokepoint” area of the Northwest Passage (Viscount Melville Sound), the late summer trend is -6% per decade and +2.5% per decade for total and old ice, respectively. The trends in the long-term sea-ice thickness measurements in the Beaufort Sea over the continental shelf and in the eastern portions of the Canadian Arctic do not show major reductions unlike measurements from the deepwater Arctic Ocean.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".