Post-fledging Survival Of Marbled Murrelets Brachyramphus Marmoratus Estimated With Radio-marked Juveniles In Desolation Sound, British Columbia
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
For many birds, juvenile survival rates are the least-known demographic component.However, such estimates are important in the construction of population projection models.Here we report the first estimates of local survival for juvenile Marbled Murrelets Brachyramphus marmoratus, an alcid species of conservation concern in the Pacific Northwest.We estimated the survival of 34 radio-tagged individuals to be 0.8621 (95% CI 0.7250 -1.001) during an 80 day period post-fledging.When extrapolated over a year, under the assumption of constant survival, this translates into an annual survival rate of 0.51.In the absence of information on the influence of the transmitters on survival, our estimates were calculated with the assumption that there were no effects.Our estimates do not include fledging or early post-fledging mortality.A high proportion of radioed juveniles were censored throughout the study, and we suggest that natal dispersal may account for this.The extrapolated annual survival rate is lower than values previously used in demographic models for this species, but this work provides the first data-based evaluation of juvenile survival for the Marbled Murrelet.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it