Os recursos não convencionais e a transformação da oferta mundial de petróleo
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Resumo De junho de 2014 a marco de 2015, o preco do petroleo caiu significativamente, deixando paises exportadores inquietos com suas possiveis consequencias. Em geral, especialistas em energia afirmam que esse movimento se vincula ao aumento da oferta e a relativa queda da demanda. Neste artigo, sem tentar explicar esse comportamento dos precos, tencionamos demonstrar que houve uma importante transformacao no lado da oferta, uma vez que a producao dos Estados Unidos da America (EUA) e do Canada tem aumentado desde 2008. Nossa hipotese e que so podemos compreender esse crescimento se levarmos em consideracao a elevacao do valor do petroleo entre 2004 e 2008, o que possibilitou a producao em fontes nao convencionais, como o folhelho e as areias betuminosas. Ate entao, em virtude de custos de producao altos, era praticamente impossivel extrair os recursos desses campos. Contudo, o aumento dos precos modificou esse cenario, como tentaremos evidenciar neste estudo. Hoje, a producao norte-americana e muito maior do que ha cinco anos, o que permitiu uma retracao das importacoes. Ademais, o Canada tornou-se seu principal parceiro comercial em termos de energia, diminuindo a importância da Organizacao dos Paises Exportadores de Petroleo (OPEP) para a economia dos EUA. Palavras-chave: petroleo; fontes nao convencionais; folhelho. TITULO EM INGLES The unconventional resources and the changes in the world’s oil supply Abstract From June 2014 to March 2015, oil prices dropped significantly, raising concerns among exporting countries about possible outcomes. In general, energy pundits say that this movement is related to the surge in supply and the drop in demand. In this article, in which we do not aim to explain this price behavior, we try to show that there has been an important transformation in the supply side, as American and Canadian production has been increasing steadily since 2008. Our hypothesis is that we can only understand this growth if we take into account the fact that oil prices rose from 2004 to 2008, which enabled the production of unconventional resources, such as shale and oil sands. Up until then, due to high production costs, it was virtually impossible to extract resources from these fields. However, the rise in prices has changed that scenario, as we will try to demonstrate in this study. Now, the U.S. is producing a lot more oil than five years ago, which has allowed a decrease in imports. Moreover, Canada has become its most important partner in the energy trade, thus mitigating the importance of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to the American economy. Keywords: oil; unconventional resources; shale. Artigo recebido em 13 jul. 2015.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".