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The Delphi Oracle and the management of aneurysms

2015· editorial· en· W2190836463 on OpenAlexaff
Robert Fahed, Tim E. Darsaut

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of NeuroInterventional Surgery · 2015
Typeeditorial
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicDelphi Technique in Research
Canadian institutionsHealth Sciences CentreCentre Hospitalier de l’Université de MontréalUniversity of Alberta HospitalHôpital Notre-Dame
Fundersnot available
KeywordsMedicineOracleAneurysmDelphi methodQuality (philosophy)Divergence (linguistics)Knowledge baseDelphiProcess (computing)SurgeryArtificial intelligenceComputer scienceEpistemology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The history of human opinion is scarcely anything more than the history of human error. Voltaire1 The knowledge vacuum surrounding the management of unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIAs) persists. It is acknowledged that good quality (randomized) data on which to base clinical decisions do not exist. However, this has not stopped the manufacture of non-evidence-based devices used to justify approaches where clinical decisions are made. The most recently published offering is the ‘Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysm Treatment Score (UIATS)’, generated via consensus sessions with world-renowned leaders.2 Notably, this iterative process is termed a ‘Delphi’ consensus, which should readily differentiate it from conventional scientific endeavors. The UIATS is a complex score that combines patient-related, aneurysm-related, and treatment-related factors, and attributes 0–5 points per item, resulting in two columns of numerical values—one favoring aneurysm repair and the other favoring conservative management. A divergence in score of ≥3 between the columns yields a ‘definitive’ management recommendation.2 With this system, several inconsistencies are concealed …

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.021
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.004
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: Not applicable
GenreCandidate signal: Editorial · Consensus signal: Editorial
Teacher disagreement score0.093
Threshold uncertainty score0.727

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0210.004
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.001
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.001
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.104
GPT teacher head0.424
Teacher spread0.320 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designNot applicable
Domainnot available
GenreEditorial

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations16
Published2015
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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