A NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION TEST

Abstract The most important short-term success of President Barack Obama's nuclear weapons policy has been to halt the erosion of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Obama's policies helped extract a minimum positive result from the 2010 NPT Review Conference, a favorable outcome compared to the chaos that his predecessor's representatives had created at the 2005 conference. However, the result is only a compromise of the least common denominator between the nuclear weapon states and the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). The nuclear weapon states refused to agree to any specific actions or deadlines for disarmament, while the NAM states rejected any strengthening of the nonproliferation toolbox. The 2010 conference's final document is thus an exercise in minimalism, with the notable exception of the section addressing the Middle East. As measured by delegates' statements, the Obama policy was welcomed as a positive development. This factor enabled key players, such as Egypt and Brazil, to strive for compromise, and others, such as Russia and China, not to block it. This outcome owes more to the "Prague spirit" and the New START than to the Nuclear Posture Review. By compromising on the Middle East, the Obama administration showed the necessary flexibility to motivate the key NAM actor, Egypt, to deliver the agreement of that bloc, foiling the intentions of Iran to prevent a consensus. Keywords: Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear WeaponsUnited StatesRussiaChinaFranceGermanyEgyptBrazilNorwayPolandJapan Notes 1. Rebecca Johnson, "Politics and Protection: Why the 2005 NPT Review Conference Failed," Disarmament Diplomacy 20 (Autumn 2005), <www.acronym.org.uk/dd/dd80/80npt.htm>. 2. Harald Müller, "A Treaty in Troubled Waters. Reflections on the Failed NPT Review Conference," International Spectator 40 (July 2005), pp. 33–44. 3. Barack Obama, "Remarks by President Barack Obama," Prague, April 5, 2009, <www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Remarks-By-President-Barack-Obama-In-Prague-As-Delivered/>. 4. In addition to the references given in the endnotes, I make use in this article of the reporting of the nongovernmental organization Reaching Critical Will, <www.reachingcriticalwill.org/legal/npt/2010index.html>, as well as my own observations as a participant. 5. For a good overview of the 2010 conference, see Rebecca Johnson, "Assessing the 2010 NPT Review Conference," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July/August 2010, <www.acronym.org.uk/npt/2010_NPT_REJ_Bulletin_07.10.pdf>. 6. Summarized in "Note Verbale Dated 13 May 2010 from the Delegations of the Russian Federation and the United States of America Addressed to the President of the Conference," 2010 NPT Review Conference, NPT/CONF.2010/WP.75, May 17, 2010, <www.un.org/en/conf/npt/2010/pdf/npt_conf2010_wp75.pdf>. 7. Sergey A. Ryabkov, "Statement by the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affaires [sic] of the Russian Federation," 2010 NPT Review Conference, New York, May 4, 2010, <www.un.org/en/conf/npt/2010/statements/pdf/russia_en.pdf>. 8. Nikolai Sokov, "The New, 2010 Russian Military Doctrine: The Nuclear Angle," James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, February 5, 2010, <cns.miis.edu/stories/100205_russian_nuclear_doctrine.htm>. 9. "Statement by the Delegation of the Russian Federation at Main Committee I," 2010 NPT Review Conference, New York, May 7, 2010, <www.reachingcriticalwill.org/legal/npt/revcon2010/statements/7May_Russia.pdf>; see also Cristina Hansell and Nikita Perfilyev, "Together toward Nuclear Zero: Understanding Chinese and Russian Security Concerns," Nonproliferation Review 16 (November 2009), pp. 435–61. 10. Hansell and Perfilyev, "Together toward Nuclear Zero." 11. "Statement by H.E. Ambassador Li Baodong, Head of the Chinese Delegation," 2010 NPT Review Conference, New York, May 4, 2010, <www.un.org/en/conf/npt/2010/statements/pdf/china_en.pdf>. 12. "Implementation of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons: Report Submitted by China," 2010 NPT Review Conference, New York, NPT/CONF.2010/31, May 4, 2010, <www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=NPT/CONF.2010/31>; and "Steps to Advance the Middle East Peace Process and to Promote the Establishment of a Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone in the Middle East: Report Submitted by China," 2010 NPT Review Conference, New York, NPT/CONF.2010/32, May 4, 2010, <www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=NPT/CONF.2010/32>. China submitted several working papers to the 2010 NPT Review Conference on May 6, 2010: "Nuclear Disarmament and the Reduction of the Danger of Nuclear War," NPT/CONF.2010/WP.63; "Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons," NPT/CONF.2010/WP.64; "Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy," NPT/CONF.2010/WP.65; "Nuclear Issues in the Middle East," NPT/CONF.2010/WP.66; "Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zones," NPT/CONF.2010/WP.67; and "Security Assurances," NPT/CONF.2010/WP.68, all of which are available at <www.un.org/en/conf/npt/2010/workingpapers.shtml>. 13. "Nuclear Disarmament: France's Practical Commitment," NPT/CONF.2010/WP.33, April 14, 2010; "Dismantling the Ground-to-Ground Component," NPT/CONF.2010/WP.35, April 12, 2010; "Dismantling the Pacific Testing Centre," NPT/CONF.2010/WP.36, April 12, 2010; "Dismantling of Plants for the Production of Fissile Material for Nuclear Weapons," NPT/CONF.2010/WP.37, April 12, 2010; and "Nuclear Disarmament: France's Firm Commitment," NPT/CONF.2010/WP.44, April 28, 2010. All these working papers, submitted by France for the 2010 NPT Review Conference, are available at <www.un.org/en/conf/npt/2010/workingpapers.shtml>. 14. Eric Danon, "General Debate Address," 2010 NPT Review Conference, New York, May 4, 2010, <www.un.org/en/conf/npt/2010/statements/pdf/france_en.pdf>. 15. As said by a Brazilian representative and subsequently repeated by members of two or three other NAM delegations. 16. As said by a Brazilian representative and subsequently repeated by members of two or three other NAM delegations.; "Main Committee II: Non-Proliferation Statement by Mr. Eric Danon, Permanent Representative of France to the Conference on Disarmament," 2010 NPT Review Conference, New York, May 10, 2010, <www.franceonu.org/spip.php?article4463>; and "Main Committee III: Statement by Ms. Florence Mangin, Permanent Representative of France to the United Nations and Other International Organisations in Vienna," 2010 NPT Review Conference, New York, May 10, 2010, <www.franceonu.org/spip.php?article4469>. 17. "Main Committee I: Statement by Mr. Eric Danon, Permanent Representative of France to the Conference of Disarmament," 2010 NPT Review Conference, New York, May 7, 2010, <www.franceonu.org/spip.php?article4461>. 18. Danon, "General Debate Address." 19. Danon, "General Debate Address.". 20. "Implementation of the 1995 Resolution and 2000 Outcome on the Middle East: Working Paper Submitted by Egypt," 2010 NPT Review Conference, NPT/CONF.2010/WP.14, March 25, 2010, <www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=NPT/CONF.2010/WP.14>. 21. "Address by H.E. Ahmed Aboul-Gheit, Minster for Foreign Affairs of the Arab Republic of Egypt," 2010 NPT Review Conference, New York, May 5, 2010, <www.un.org/en/conf/npt/2010/statements/pdf/egypt_en.pdf>; "Statement of H.E. Ambassador Maged Abdelaziz, Permanent Representative of Egypt to the United Nations before Main Committee II," New York, May 10, 2010, <www.reachingcriticalwill.org/legal/npt/revcon2010/statements/10May_MCII_Egypt.pdf>. 22. For example, "Ambassador Hisham Badr, Permanent Representative of Egypt To the United Nations in Geneva, on Behalf of the New Agenda Coalition, Main Committee I," 2010 NPT Review Conference, New York, May 7, 2010, <www.reachingcriticalwill.org/legal/npt/revcon2010/statements/7May_New%20Agenda%20Coalition.pdf>. 23. For example, "Statement of the Group of Non-Aligned States Parties," 2010 NPT Review Conference, New York, May 7, 2010, <www.reachingcriticalwill.org/legal/npt/revcon2010/statements/7May_Non%20Aligned%20Movement.pdf>. 24. Johnson, "Assessing the 2010 NPT Review Conference." 25. "Main Committee II: Statement by Ambassador Antonio Guerreiro," 2010 NPT Review Conference, New York, May 10, 2010, <www.reachingcriticalwill.org/legal/npt/revcon2010/statements/10May_MCII_Brazil.pdf>; and "Main Committee III: Statement by Minister Santiago Irazabal Mourao," 2010 NPT Review Conference, New York, May 10, 2010, <www.reachingcriticalwill.org/legal/npt/revcon2010/statements/10May_MCIII_Brazil.pdf>. 26. Statement by H.E. Celso Amorim, foreign minister of Brazil, 2010 NPT Review Conference, New York, May 3, 2010, <www.un.org/en/conf/npt/2010/statements/pdf/brazil_en.pdf>. 27. "Main Committee I: Statement by Ambassador Luiz Filipe de Macedo Soares," 2010 NPT Review Conference, New York, May 7, 2010, <www.reachingcriticalwill.org/legal/npt/revcon2010/statements/7May_Brazil.pdf>. 28. Johnson, "Assessing the 2010 NPT Review Conference," p. 4. 29. "Speech by Dr Werner Hoyer, Minister of State at the Foreign Office of Germany," 2010 NPT Review Conference, New York, May 4, 2010, <www.un.org/en/conf/npt/2010/statements/pdf/germany_en.pdf>. 30. "Speech by Dr Werner Hoyer, Minister of State at the Foreign Office of Germany," 2010 NPT Review Conference, New York, May 4, 2010, <www.un.org/en/conf/npt/2010/statements/pdf/germany_en.pdf>. 31. "Statement by H.E. Witold Sobkóv, Head of the Polish Delegation," 2010 NPT Review Conference, New York, May 5, 2010, <www.un.org/en/conf/npt/2010/statements/pdf/poland_en.pdf>. 32. See "Working Paper Submitted by Australia, Austria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Hungary, Ireland, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway and Sweden ('the Vienna Group of Ten')," NPT/CONF.2010/WP.15, March 29, 2010; "Article V, Article VI, and the Eighth to Twelfth Preambular Paragraphs of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty," NPT/CONF.2010/WP.16, March 29, 2010; "Article III and Preambular Paragraphs 4 and 5…," NPT/CONF.2010/WP.17, March 29, 2010; "Articles III (3) and IV, and the Sixth and Seventh Preambular Paragraphs…," NPT/CONF.2010/WP.18, March 29, 2010; "Articles III (3) and IV, and the Sixth and Seventh Preambular Paragraphs, Especially in Their Relationship to Article III (1), (2) and (4) and the Fourth and Fifth Preambular Paragraphs (Cooperation in the Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy," NPT/CONF.2010/WP.19, March 29, 2010; "Article III and the Fourth and Fifth Preambular Paragraphs, Especially in Their Relationship to Article IV and the Sixth and Seventh Preambular Paragraphs (Physical Protection and Illicit Trafficking)," NPT/CONF.2010/WP.20, March 29, 2010; "Article III and the Fourth and Fifth Preambular Paragraphs, Especially in Their Relationship to Article IV and the Sixth and Seventh Preambular Paragraphs (Compliance and Verification)," NPT/CONF.2010/WP.21, March 29, 2010; and "Proposal by Australia, Austria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Hungary, Ireland, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway and Sweden (the Vienna Group of Ten)," NPT/CONF.2010/WP.38, April 20, 2010. All of these working papers, submitted for the 2010 NPT Review Conference, are available at <www.un.org/en/conf/npt/2010/workingpapers.shtml>. 33. Statement of H.E. Ambassador Steffen Kongstad to Main Committee I, 2010 NPT Review Conference, New York, May 11, 2010, <www.reachingcriticalwill.org/legal/npt/revcon2010/statements/11May_MCI_Norway.pdf>. 34. "The United Kingdom-Norway Initiative: Research Into the Verification of Nuclear Warhead Dismantlement: Working Paper Submitted by Norway and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland," 2010 NPT Review Conference, New York, NPT/CONF.2010/WP. 41, May 2010, <www.norway-un.org/PageFiles/404075/NPT_RevCon_2010_Joint_Working_Paper_FINAL_DISTdoc.pdf>. 35. Gry Larsen, "Norway's Statement at NPT Review Conference," 2010 NPT Review Conference, New York, May 4, 2010, <www.norway-un.org/Statements/Other-Statements/Norways-statement-at-NPT-Review-Conference/>. 36. NPT/CONF.2010/17, later condensed into "New Package of Practical Nuclear Disarmament and non-proliferation measures for the 2010 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons: Working Paper Submitted by Australia and Japan," 2010 NPT Review Conference, NPT/CONF.2010/WP.9, March 24, 2010, <www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=NPT/CONF.2010/WP.9>. See also Gareth Evans and Yoriko Kawaguchi, co-chairs, "Eliminating Nuclear Threats: A Practical Agenda for Global Policymakers," International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament, November 2009, <www.icnnd.org/reference/reports/ent/index.html>. 37. "Statement by H.E. Mr. Tetsuro Fukuyama, State Secretary for Foreign Affairs of Japan," 2010 NPT Review Conference, New York, May 4 2010, <www.un.org/en/conf/npt/2010/statements/pdf/japan_en.pdf>; and "Statement by H.E. Mr. Akio Suda, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, ?Permanent Representative of Japan to the Conference on Disarmament at the NPT Review Conference in 2010 Meeting of Main Committee I," 2010 NPT Review Conference, New York, May 7, 2010, <www.mofa.go.jp/policy/un/disarmament/npt/review2010-4/maincommittee1.html>. 38. Akio Suda, "Joint Statement on Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Education," 2010 NPT Review Conference, New York, May 11, 2010, <www.mofa.go.jp/policy/un/disarmament/npt/review2010-4/pdfs/jointstate_edu1005.pdf>; see also "Disarmament and Non-proliferation Education: Promoting Cooperation with Civil Society towards a World Without Nuclear Weapons: Joint Working Paper Submitted by Japan and the United Nations University," 2010 NPT Review Conference, NPT/CONF.2010/WP.6, March 19, 2010, <www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=NPT/CONF.2010/WP.6>. 39. This is also the conclusion of Johnson, "Assessing the 2010 NPT Review Conference," fn. 28, p. 8. 40. "Draft Final Document," 2010 NPT Review Conference, NPT/CONF.2010/L.2, A. I, <www.reachingcriticalwill.org/legal/npt/revcon2010/DraftFinalDocument.pdf>. 41. "Draft Final Document," 2010 NPT Review Conference, NPT/CONF.2010/L.2, A. I, <www.reachingcriticalwill.org/legal/npt/revcon2010/DraftFinalDocument.pdf>., Action 9. 42. "Draft Final Document," 2010 NPT Review Conference, NPT/CONF.2010/L.2, A. I, <www.reachingcriticalwill.org/legal/npt/revcon2010/DraftFinalDocument.pdf>., Action 10. 43. "Draft Final Document," 2010 NPT Review Conference, NPT/CONF.2010/L.2, A. I, <www.reachingcriticalwill.org/legal/npt/revcon2010/DraftFinalDocument.pdf>., A. iv; B.i.

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