Price Change, Financial Stability, and the British Economy, 1870–1939
Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTRODUCTION For much of the last quarter-century, a principal focus of economists' attention has been inflation and, to some extent, disinflation and the associated costs. More recently, deflation has attracted some interest, although only its possible harmful consequences have been discussed; there has been no mention of deflation as the by-product of increased economic growth interacting with unchanged money growth. Concern over deflation has been prompted by some sharp rises and falls in asset prices in Japan and, more recently, in the United States and to a lesser extent the United Kingdom, and the interest taken in the relationship between these and the general price level. But also important are the actual deflations in prices in Japan, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan, and the near-zero inflation in the United States and Europe. But what, do we know about deflation? It is necessary to go back to before World War II to find episodes in almost any Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) country except Japan. The purpose of this chapter is to begin to investigate the effects of deflation in the British economy. The depression of the 1930s stimulated many developments in economic analysis. But Keynes's (1936) ideas on deflation in the General Theory and Irving Fisher's debt-deflation theory have been, at least by comparison, neglected. These ideas suggest that debt-deflation causes, or at least worsens, depressions. Our aim in this chapter is to explore what these ideas can contribute to understanding the behaviour of the British economy both in the late nineteenth century and in the interwar years.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".