Évolution de la population au Québec et au Canada depuis un siècle et demi en l’absence de migrations
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Les projections de population sans migration établies avec les séries de taux de mortalité et de fécondité estimés ou observés depuis 1851 permettent d'établir un bilan à long terme des migrations au Québec et au Canada, en comparant les effectifs aux recensements et les résultats des projections. Sans migration depuis 1851, le Québec compterait 12 millions d'habitants en 1991 au lieu de 7 millions. Quant au Canada, la projection sans migration depuis 1871 donne 26 millions (sans Terre-Neuve), soit un million de moins que la population recensée. Si le Canada avait gardé ses enfants, il aurait pu se passer des 12 millions d'immigrants qu'il a reçus, et la population québécoise et française serait beaucoup plus importante.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".