An agent-based model for the sustainable management of navigation activities in the Saint Lawrence Estuary
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Natural resource managers of protected areas are concerned with the management of human activities potentially harmful to ecosystems’ health and/or integrity. These systems where human interact with natural resources are called social-ecological systems (SES) and possess the characteristics of complex adaptive systems (e.g. co-evolution). The SES of navigation activities and whales interacting within the Saguenay–St. Lawrence Marine Park (SSLMP) and the projected St. Lawrence Estuary Marine Protected Area in Quebec, Canada, has been investigated and modelled using the agent-based modelling (ABM) technology: The resulting Marine Mammal and Maritime Traffic Simulator (3MTSim) is designed to support marine protected area managers in their effort to reduce the frequency and intensity of boat-whale co-occurrences within the St Lawrence Estuary and mitigate the risks of vessel strikes. This dissertation presents the building process of the 3MTSim’s boat ABM. \n \nThe knowledge extracted from analyses of gathered and collected data relative to all forms of sailing and motorized navigation supported the decision to first focus on the modelling of commercial excursions (including whale-watching trips), cargo ships, and cruise liners. Data analyses allowed, for the first time, to draw a comprehensive portrait of navigation activities throughout the region where whales congregate in great numbers during the summer season. Among others, a quantitative analysis led to an accurate estimate of the total navigation time within each separate ecosystem of the region. This study identified areas intensively used by maritime traffic such as the mouth of the Saguenay River and offshore Les Escoumins. \n \nSeveral field campaigns carried out in the context of this project allowed to link some undesirable collective patterns of whale-watching excursions (regarding both whale conservation and SSLMP visitors’ experience) with contextual factors including whale species’ abundance and distribution, management gaps, and companies and captains’ decisions. The bounded rationality framework was chosen to investigate captains’ decision making and more generally the dynamics of the whole whale-watching SES. A portrait of the decision strategies followed by whale-watching captains has been drawn. The results will lead to a set of recommendations regarding the sustainable management of whale-watching excursions in and around the SSLMP. \n \nResults from field investigations and data analyses have fed the model building process, including an explicit representation of the whale-watching captains’ decision making. Data analyses revealed that cargo ships and ocean liners tend to follow predictable routes with low variability. Consequently, a complex behavioural modelling approach was deemed unnecessary in favour of a statistical approach, justified by the large volume of high-quality historical data available for both components. \n \nThe pattern-oriented modelling approach proved appropriate for selecting a valid model of whale-watching excursions. Model simulations confirmed that whale-watching captains do favour the observation of a few rare rorqual species (e.g. humpback whales), leaving aside the most abundant one, namely the minke whales. Therefore, 3MTSim was run to quantify the impact that whale-watching captains changing their decision strategy could have on both whale exposure to boats (conservation concern) and excursion content (commercial concern). It was found that captains willing to avoid crowded observation sites and/or seeking to increase the diversity of species observed could have statistically significant benefits regarding conservation issues without affecting important features of their excursions. Finally, the convincing performance of the 3MTSim’s boat ABM ensures its safe use as a decision-support tool for management insofar as model limitations are understood and accounted for in the results and discussion.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".