Risk Characterization for Introduction and Spread of Multinucleate Sphere X (MSX) in Prince Edward Island, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT Multinucleate Sphere X (MSX) is an important pathogen of the eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) on the east coast of North America. This parasite is currently not present in Prince Edward Island (PEI), but there are concerns that it will spread from Cape Breton, Nova Scotia, where it was recently identified. Introduction of MSX to PEI would cause direct losses to the shellfish industry and it would have long-term implications for exports of oysters. The main goal of this study was to assess the risk of introduction and dissemination of MSX, as estimated by the number of movements of commercial oysters from three data sources. The in-degree (incoming) and out-degree (outgoing) of the contact network among bays, estuaries, and rivers were used to quantify the risks. For a single location on PEI, identification of up to 55 incoming and up to 26 outgoing movements to and from different locations within PEI were recorded. This suggests that if MSX was introduced it could be disseminated quickly. Movements of shellfish (oysters and mussels) from New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, which pose additional risks of pathogen introduction to PEI, were also identified. Two locations (New London Bay and the East-North-West River complex) were consistently ranked in the top quartile of incoming movements by the three data sources. In addition, two other locations (Bideford Area and Conway Narrows) were classified in the same quartile by only two of the data sources, suggesting that these four areas can be considered at high risk for pathogen introduction. Similarly, two locations were classified in the top quartile of outgoing movements (East-North-West River complex and Orwell Area) by the three data sources, whereas Bideford Area and Foxley River were only identified by two of the three data sources in the same quartile. These results indicate not only risk areas for pathogen introduction or dissemination, but also those areas having both high risk of introduction and high risk of dissemination (e.g., East-North-West River complex). Results of this study illustrate the potential consequences of MSX should Haplosporidium nelsoni reach PEI. Findings also highlight the need for the development of a system that captures all shellfish movements, which will be essential to mounting an effective response to pathogen introduction and mitigation of disease dissemination.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".