The Determinants of Agglomeration Redux: Transportation, Trade, and Input-Output Linkages
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We study the determinants of agglomeration of Canadian manufacturing industries from 1990 to 2009. In so doing, we revisit the seminal contribution by Rosenthal and Strange (2001, "The determinants of agglomeration", J Urban Econ 50(2), 191?229) using a long panel and continuous measures of localization. We pay particular attention to the role of transporation costs ? constructed using extensive Canadian trucking microdata ? international trade exposure, and input sharing ? constructed using micro-geographic location patterns of plants. We find that between 1990 and 2009, industry localization has persistently fallen. The average degree of localization decreased by 36% within 10km, by 22.6% within 100km, and by 11.3% within 500km. Declining localization is associated with import competition, particularly from low wage countries, increasing transportation costs and the spreading out of upstream input suppliers and downstream demand for intermediate inputs. While we find strong evidence of trade-driven changes in localization, we find less evidence for knowledge spillovers and labour market pooling as drivers in changes in localization.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".