Exchange Rate Regimes for the 21st Century: Asia, Europe and the Americas
Bibliographic record
Abstract
It is commonplace today to assert that the world is becoming more globalized.But in many ways, including the movement of people, goods and capital, the world was almost as globalized during the three decades before the outbreak of WW1 in 1914.Immigrants moved by the millions from Europe to North America, and passports hadn't been invented.International trade in goods was almost as free as it is now, since Britain ruled the waves not to mention most of the colonized world.Tariffs, quotas and other barriers to trade were much less important than they became after 1918, and particularly after 1930.And capital moved freely in large quantities, from Britain and continental Europe to the developing countries of South and North America.The US was the world's biggest borrower, with Argentina and Canada not far behind.One thing that was different then was that the world -or at least Britain and America's world -was on a gold standard.The gold standard broke down in the late 1920s and early 1930s and international trade and finance ground nearly to a halt.The cessation of trade compounded the great depression in Europe and the Americas, and the cessation of capital flows led to debt crises of magnitudes the world had never known -Latin America in particular defaulted on hundreds of millions of dollars of bonds held by North Americans and Europeans.In 1944, the putative victors -America, Britain and a few dozen hangers on (like France) -met at the Washington Hotel in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, to discuss reconstruction of world trade and finance after World War 2. They decided that the victors -Canada, Britain and the U.S. -should work toward the resumption of free international trade in goods: hence they founded the IMF to support fixed exchange rates via a "gold-exchange" standard, and lay the groundwork for the GATT, which is now the WTO.But free movement of both people and capital was put on the back burner.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".