Probabilistic Analysis of Iceberg Scouring Frequency Based on Repetitive Seabed Mapping, OffshoreNewfoundland and Labrador
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Seabed areas shallower than approximately 220 m water depth off eastern Newfoundland and Labrador are subject to infrequent, but damaging impacts from keel-dragging icebergs, necessitating costly protection measures for subsea facilities for offshore development projects. Appropriate measures require an accurate assessment of the iceberg scour risk at a particular location. Repetitive sidescan surveys conducted over three decades provide up to 25-year baseline for assessing seabed iceberg scour frequency in targeted areas of oil and gas basins on Grand Bank. Results provide critical groundtruth and allow calibration of probability models used to assess engineering risk for bottom-founded structures. In contrast to more dynamic sea ice regimes such as the Beaufort Sea where ice ridge keels routinely impact the shallow shelf seabed, the northeastern Canadian shelf is subject to infrequent scouring. Repetitive mapping surveys must encompass broad areas (100s of km²) and decadal time intervals to provide statistically meaningful results. In this paper, the authors discuss efforts to refine the mean scour rates, and to measure the uncertainty in the estimates using Monte Carlo and Bayesian modeling techniques. A mean scour frequency rate of 4.1 x 10⁻⁴ scours/km²/yr is calculated, based on repetitive mapping results to 2003.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".