Development of a New Ice-Ocean Prediction System for the Northwest Atlantic
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Fisheries and Oceans Canada is developing a comprehensive ocean-ice prediction system for the Northwest Atlantic in conjunction with a larger initiative to develop an operational coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean prediction capability for Canada. For the East Coast of Canada, a preoperational modelling system called C-NOOFS (Canada Newfoundland Operational Ocean Forecast System) is being developed based on the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) modelling system. The system covers the seasonally ice-covered areas from Baffin Bay in the north to the Gulf of St. Lawrence in the south. The strengths of the simulations include: the timing of the maximum southwards extent of the sea ice off Newfoundland; the fact that off Labrador the sea ice largely restricted to the shelf; that the ice in the Gulf of St. Lawrence does not extend onto the Scotian Shelf; and the solution in Hudson Bay is qualitatively reasonable. The primary weaknesses are that south of 55⁰ N the simulated ice concentrations are much smaller and the ice thicknesses are thinner than are observed.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".