Zooming out: from local snapshots to a pan-arctic inventory of Arctic ponds and lakes
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The millions of ponds and small lakes in Arctic lowlands have been identified as biogeochemical hotspots with high process rates regarding the turnover of energy and carbon. The rapidly warming Arctic climate does affect the surface inundation due to changes in the water balance and/or permafrost degradation which directly alters the exchange of energy and carbon between the surface and the atmosphere. However, these water bodies with surface areas smaller than 1 km² are not captured on a global scale due to the low resolution of global maps. High-resolution imagery allows to map ponds and small lakes but provides only limited coverage. This study aims to identify landscape-specific parameters which allow to upscale high-resolution but local water body size distributions to the pan-arctic scale. \nWater bodies are mapped from aerial, TerraSAR-X and Kompsat-2 imagery with resolutions of 4 m and better in 9 major Arctic landscapes in Russia (Lena River Delta, Yamal Peninsula, Indigirka Lowlands), Canada (Canadian High Arctic, Mackenzie River Delta, Yellowknife) and Alaska (Barrow Peninsula, Yukon Delta, Seward Peninsula). Water body size distributions are parameterized via their mean, standard deviation and skewness. We assess (i) similarities between the high-resolution distributions and existing regional and global water body databases, as well as (ii) the variability of water body size distributions within and between regions, and (iii) relate regional differences to hydrological, geomorphological and permafrost processes. \nPonds make more than 95% of the total number of water bodies in all landscapes except the Mackenzie Delta, where they contribute only about 75%. Within-landscape variability is low in all study areas which allows the estimation of regional distributions. The statistical properties of these regional distributions can be used to incorporate ponds and small lakes into larger-scale climate and ecosystem models. This study provides a pan-arctic estimate of small ponds and lakes which represents a baseline against which to evaluate climate-induced changes in the distributions of Arctic water bodies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".