Regeneration patterns of three Mediterranean pines and forest changes after a large wildfire in northeastern Spain
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
AbstractFire has favored pines throughout their natural range in environments subject to continuous disturbances, such as the Mediterranean Basin. However, recovery of pine species after large fires is not always successful. In this study, we analyze the post-fire regeneration pattern of Pinus halepensis, P. nigra and P. sylvestris three years after fire, in an area affected by a large wildfire in 1994. Moreover, we develop a model of succession to predict medium-term changes in forest composition 30 years after fire from the regeneration monitored during the first years after fire. The results show that, although the three pine species regenerate quite well in the absence of fire, their post-fire regeneration is very different: P. halepensis shows high seedling density after fire, but P. nigra and P. sylvestris almost disappear from burned plots. The model simulations of the future forest composition 30 years after fire indicate that 77-93% of plots dominated by these two pines change after fire to communities dominated by oaks (Quercus ilex, Q. cerrioides). There is also a considerable number (7-16%) of these burned pine plots that change to shrublands. Thus, these observational and modelling results suggest that large fire events, which have increased considerably in the Mediterranean region in the last decades, may decrease the overall distribution of these pine species, especially that of P.nigra and P. sylvestris.RésuméLe feu favorise les pins dans toute leur aire de répartition, et particulièrement dans les environnements perturbés de façon continuelle comme dans le bassin de la Méditerranée. Toutefois, la régénération (ou le rétablissement) des pins à la suite de grands feux n'est pas toujours couronnée de succès. Dans cette étude, nous analysons le patron de régénération de Pinus halepensis, P. nigra et P. sylvestris trois ans après feu, dans une région incendiée en 1994. Nous développons également un modèle de succession qui prédit à moyen terme, soit 30 ans après feu, la composition forestière grâce au suivi de la régénération arborescente des premières années suivant l'incendie. Les trois espèces de pins se régénèrent assez bien en l'absence de feu. Par contre, leur régénération après feu est très différente : P. halepensis a une forte densité de plantules après feu, alors que P. nigra et P. sylvestris sont presque disparus des zones brûlées. Après 30 ans, les simulations du modèle indiquent que 77 à 93 % des zones dominées par ces deux espèces de pins se transforment à la suite d'un feu en communautés dominées par les chênes (Quercus ilex, Q. cerrioides). Un pourcentage non négligeable (7 à 16 %) de ces zones se transforment en arbustaies. En somme, les grands incendies, qui ont augmenté considérablement dans les régions méditerranéennes au cours des dernières décennies, risquent de restreindre l'aire de répartition des pins, surtout celle de P. nigra et P. sylvestris. Key Words: Post-fire recoveryRegenerationForest changeFirePinusMots-clés:: Régénération après feuChangement de communauté forestièreFeuPinus
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it