India's Rise and the Global Order: The Logic of Peaceful Integration
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The rise of India as a state with global power attributes is expected to take place before the middle of the 21st century. As its power capabilities, especially in the military and economic arenas increase, India is likely to claim a stake in the global power hierarchy in the emerging multipolar system. Will this claim engender stability or instability in the international system? We contend in this paper that given current trends, while India will make stronger and more frequent claims for a meaningful role in international governance, especially in key global institutions, its rise is unlikely to be destabilizing for the central system. The reason for India’s likely peaceful rise is its slow but steady integration into the global order in two most relevant areas-- political/strategic and economic. The persistence of these integrative trends is likely to ensure India’s rise as a power somewhat satisfied with the US-dominated international system in the foreseeable future, and as a power interested in a ‘managed multipolar order.’
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.007 | 0.053 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.013 | 0.008 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.008 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.007 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".