The effect of the availability of firearms on homicide rates in Quebec from 1974 to 2006: a time series analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This article evaluates the relationship between gun availability and homicide rates in Quebec between 1974 and 2006. It stands out from previous research, on the one hand, by creating gun availability proxies according to gun legal status and, on the other, by conceptualizing homicide rates according to their context of commission. Proxies and homicide rates time series were analysed using an ARIMA model. Significant relationships are noticed when both phenomena are evaluated at the same measurement time. These results make it difficult to confirm any causality patterns between gun availability proxies and the various homicide rates employed. In other words, we can't confirm whether gun availability influences homicide rates, or if homicide rates are what has an impact on the tendency for Canadians to acquire guns. RESULTS, however, suggest that gun availability has a close relationship with one particular homicide rate - namely, spousal homicides. An increase in spousal homicide is reflected, in the short run, by an increase in long guns availability. Thereafter, an increase in this particular type of gun is followed by a significant drop in spousal homicides. The discussion emphasizes the importance of considering both the context in which homicides are committed and the legal status of guns used in such contexts when assessing the relationship between gun availability and crime of violence., Cet article estime la relation entre la disponibilite des armes a feu (AAF) et les homicides au Quebec de 1974 a 2006. L'article se distingue des recherches prealablement realisees, d'une part, en operationnalisant des indicateurs de disponibilite selon le statut de l'arme et, d'autre part, en creant des taux d'homicide tenant compte de leur contexte. Des series chronologiques furent analysees a l'aide d'une modelisation ARIMA. Les relations significatives s'observent principalement lorsque les deux phenomenes sont consideres au meme temps de mesure. Par consequent, il demeure difficile de determiner si les AAF influent sur le taux d'homicide ou bien si ce sont les homicides qui affectent la disponibilite des AAF. La disponibilite des AAF entretient toutefois des liens etroits avec les homicides dans un contexte bien precis, soit celui des homicides conjugaux. Une augmentation des homicides conjugaux se traduit par une hausse de la disponibilite des armes longues. Par la suite, une recrudescence dans la disponibilite de ce type d'armes s'accompagne d'une baisse des homicides conjugaux. L'interpretation des resultats met l'accent sur l'importance des contextes et du statut de l'arme lors de l'etude de la disponibilite des AAF et des violences criminelles.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".