Seasonal patterns in food markets in north-west Europe in the second quarter of the nineteenth century: the evidence of periodic markets in France, England, and Belgium, 1820 to 1850
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This article explores seasonal patterns in grain markets in England, France and Belgium between the 1820s and 1840s. More particularly, the magnitude and regularity of seasonal cycles are investigated for the trade in wheat, rye, oats, and barley. It is found that the grain trade followed a seasonal cycle in all the areas investigated. Usually, the volume traded was largest in the months following the harvest and smaller during spring and summer. The magnitude of these cycles tended to be larger in the English and smaller in the French areas considered, while the regularity of seasonal patterns was often more pronounced in the Paris basin. We explain these patterns by evoking technical constraints (availability of labour, labour-saving technology, demand by the processing industry, demand for fodder, storage techniques, and the conditions for transport) as well as social and economic constraints (payment of rents, consumer preferences, and the degree of economic specialization).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.005 | 0.013 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".