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Record W2262053273

Managing Price Risk on Canadian Farms

2011· article· en· W2262053273 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Allen Zak, Saqib Khan

Bibliographic record

VenueoURspace (University of Regina) · 2011
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldAgricultural and Biological Sciences
TopicAgricultural Economics and Policy
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsBusiness
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Agriculture commodity prices have experienced increased price volatility in recent years. This can be attributed in part to irregular weather events, increasing demand from developing countries for agricultural and food products and increased interest from non-commercial investment funds (speculators). This volatility in the agricultural commodity prices may result in a potential loss of revenue for the farmers, making their cash flows more risky. Volatility in the currency exchange rate is another contributor to farm price risk as the commodities in international markets are traded in U.S. dollars. If this price volatility is not properly managed it can result in loss of income and ultimately negative cash flows for larger operations. This paper strives to develop a risk management program (RMP) that can be used by producers to mitigate much of the price risk. The RMP provides price forecasts, using a combination of technical analysis that is based on market trends, and fundamental analysis that is based on the laws of demand and supply. Given the forecasted prices, the RMP will then recommend market timing strategies to optimize revenues. This means, rather than selling all the harvest together at one time, the producers would spread out the sale over different periods. The RMP forecasted trends would dictate what portion of the harvest would be sold in each period. The RMP further recommends hedging (risk reduction) strategies using futures and option contracts that are traded on commodity exchanges.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: Not applicable
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.274
Threshold uncertainty score0.947

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.017
GPT teacher head0.160
Teacher spread0.143 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designNot applicable
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2011
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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