The Risk of Dengue Virus Transmission in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania during an Epidemic Period of 2014
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: In 2010, 2012, 2013 and 2014 dengue outbreaks have been reported in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. However, there is no comprehensive data on the risk of transmission of dengue in the country. The objective of this study was to assess the risk of transmission of dengue in Dar es Salaam during the 2014 epidemic. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This cross-sectional study was conducted in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania during the dengue outbreak of 2014. The study involved Ilala, Kinondoni and Temeke districts. Adult mosquitoes were collected using carbon dioxide-propane powered Mosquito Magnet Liberty Plus traps. In each household compound, water-holding containers were examined for mosquito larvae and pupae. Dengue virus infection of mosquitoes was determined using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). Partial amplification and sequencing of dengue virus genome in infected mosquitoes was performed. A total of 1,000 adult mosquitoes were collected. Over half (59.9%) of the adult mosquitoes were collected in Kinondoni. Aedes aegypti accounted for 17.2% of the mosquitoes of which 90.6% were from Kinondoni. Of a total of 796 houses inspected, 38.3% had water-holding containers in their premises. Kinondoni had the largest proportion of water-holding containers (57.7%), followed by Temeke (31.4%) and Ilala (23.4%). The most common breeding containers for the Aedes mosquitoes were discarded plastic containers and tires. High Aedes infestation indices were observed for all districts and sites, with a house index of 18.1% in Ilala, 25.5% in Temeke and 35.3% in Kinondoni. The respective container indices were 77.4%, 65.2% and 80.2%. Of the reared larvae and pupae, 5,250 adult mosquitoes emerged, of which 61.9% were Ae. aegypti. Overall, 27 (8.18) of the 330 pools of Ae. aegypti were positive for dengue virus. On average, the overall maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) indicates pooled infection rate of 8.49 per 1,000 mosquitoes (95%CI = 5.72-12.16). There was no significant difference in pooled infection rates between the districts. Dengue viruses in the tested mosquitoes clustered into serotype 2 cosmopolitan genotype. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Ae. aegypti is the main vector of dengue in Dar es Salaam and breeds mainly in medium size plastic containers and tires. The Aedes house indices were high, indicating that the three districts were at high risk of dengue transmission. The 2014 dengue outbreak was caused by Dengue virus serotype 2. The high mosquito larval and pupal indices in the area require intensification of vector surveillance along with source reduction and health education.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".