Economic Slack Persists in the Euro Area. Business Cycle Report of May 2013
Bibliographic record
Abstract
While the USA and Latin America are increasingly sending growth signals, economic activity in China has been losing some momentum since the start of this year. The euro area continues to struggle with problems. Business surveys conducted in April once more show increased scepticism about future economic developments. Much the same as the German economy, the Austrian economy also suffers from the slowdown in global demand. The OECD's Composite Leading Indicator suggests that global economic conditions will improve for the world economy as a whole from the second quarter of 2013. Austria's export sector may increasingly benefit from this development from the second half of the year. Activity remains subdued for the time being, and here, too, survey evidence shows that sentiment among domestic businesses is sceptical. In April, WIFO's leading indicator fell for the first time since October 2012. While inflation is receding, the job market reflects the impacts of the economic weakness. The number of persons employed is stagnant, while unemployment is rising.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.004 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".