The Impacts of Climate Change on the Autumn North Atlantic Wave Climate
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this study, we investigate the impact of global warming induced by possible climate change on the autumn winds, the related storm climate, and the wave climate over the North Atlantic Ocean. These analyses are based on a third-generation wave model, WAVEWATCHIII™ and dynamically downscaled winds, obtained from the Canadian Regional Climate Model driven by the third version of the Coupled Global Climate Model (T47) from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis following the A1B climate change scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Compared with the present wave climate, represented as 1970–1999, the significant wave heights in the northeast North Atlantic will increase, whereas in other areas, such as the mid-latitudes, they will decrease, with associated changes in winds in the future climate (2040–2069). An analysis of inverse wave ages is used to suggest that wind-driven wave regimes tend to occur more frequently in the northeast North Atlantic and decrease in the mid-latitudes in the climate change scenario. The dominant North Atlantic storm-track region is estimated to shift northward, especially over the northern Northeast Atlantic, where the frequency of occurrence of the most intense cyclones is estimated to increase. We suggest that changes in storm densities are related to changes in the upper level steering flow in the atmosphere, which are the precursor to changes in the winds and ocean waves.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".