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Record W2267549738

Some Pitfalls on the Path to a Neutral Interest Rate

2011· article· en· W2267549738 on OpenAlexaffabout
David Laidler

Bibliographic record

VenueSSRN Electronic Journal · 2011
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicEconomic Theory and Policy
Canadian institutionsWestern University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsInterest rateInflation (cosmology)EconomicsReal interest rateMonetary economicsRaising (metalworking)Monetary policyValue (mathematics)Fisher hypothesisNominal interest rateMacroeconomicsEngineering
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The Bank of Canada currently expects the Canadian economy to return to full employment by the middle of next year, but is in no hurry to begin raising the overnight interest rate from its currently extremely low level towards the 3 percent plus range that normally has been associated with full employment. Some of the Bank’s critics have stressed that if inflation is to be kept stable after next year, then a “neutral” value for real – that is inflation-adjusted – market interest rates must be restored by then. The neutral interest rate’s value is hence extremely difficult to estimate, making other policy indicators highly relevant. Recent survey data on business intentions and expectations have shown more signs of expansion lately, but, along with still subdued rates of money growth, they do not as yet signal any imminent threat of an upsurge in long-term inflationary pressures in Canada, and these factors suggest that there might be something to be said for the Bank of Canada’s current caution towards raising interest rates.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.030
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.110
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Commentary · Consensus signal: Commentary
Teacher disagreement score0.248
Threshold uncertainty score0.492

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0300.110
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0010.002
Science and technology studies0.0070.020
Scholarly communication0.0110.010
Open science0.0040.003
Research integrity0.0130.042
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0070.003

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.043
GPT teacher head0.222
Teacher spread0.178 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreCommentary

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2011
Admission routes2
Has abstractyes

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