Spatio-Temporal Sensitivity of MODIS Land Surface Temperature Anomalies Indicates High Potential for Large-Scale Land Cover Change Detection in Permafrost Landscapes
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The accelerated warming Arctic climate may alter the surface energy balance locally and regionally of which a changing land surface temperature (LST) is a key indicator. Modelling current and anticipated changes of the surface energy balance requires an understanding of the spatio-temporal interactions between LST and land cover. This paper investigated the accuracy of MODIS LST V5 1 km level 3 product and its spatio-temporal sensitivity to land cover properties in a Canadian High Arctic permafrost landscape. Land cover ranged from fully vegetated moss/segde grass tundra to sparsely vegetated bare soil and barren areas. Daily mean MODIS LST were compared to in-situ radiometer measurements over wet tundra for three summers and two winters in 2008, 2009, and 2010. MODIS LST showed an accuracy of 1.8°C and a RMSE of 3.8°C in the total observation period including both summer and winter. Agreement was lowest during summer 2009 and freeze-back periods which were associated with prevailing overcast conditions. A multi-year anomaly analysis revealed robust spatio-temporal patterns taking into account the found uncertainty and different atmospheric conditions. Summer periods with regional mean LST larger than 5°C showed highest spatial diversity with four distinct anomaly classes. Dry ridge areas heated up most whereas wetland areas and dry barren surfaces with high albedo were coolest. Mean inter-annual differences of LST anomalies for different land cover classes were less than 1°C. However, spatial pattern showed fewer positive anomalies in 2010 suggesting differences in surface moisture due to interannual differences in the amount of end-of-winter snow. Presented summer LST anomalies might serve as a baseline against which to evaluate past and future changes in land surface properties with regard to the surface energy balance. Sub-temporal heterogeneity due to snow or ice on/off as well as the effect of subpixel water bodies has to be taken into account. A multi-sensor approach combining thermal satellite measurements with high-resolution optical and radar imagery therefore promises to be an effective tool for a dynamic, process-based ecosystem monitoring scheme.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".