Disaggregating Devils Lake: Can Non-State Actors, Hegemony, or Principal-Agent Theory Explain the Boundary Waters Treaty?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper seeks to devise a theoretical explanation for recent disputes over the construction of an outlet from Devils Lake, North Dakota, in a way that affords a predictive framework for future international environmental law issues. Opponents of the outlet alleged it would violate U.S. obligations not to pollute Canadian waters under the 1909 Boundary Waters Treaty (BWT) because it might introduce invasive species into waters flowing across the border into Canada. North Dakota dismissed such concerns, as did the U.S. federal government, notwithstanding requests from Canada's Ambassador and Prime Minister that the treaty compliance question be referred to the BWT's International Joint Commission (IJC). Instead of an IJC reference, the White House negotiated a political deal directly with Canadian federal, provincial, and U.S. state officials that allowed North Dakota to operate the outlet under certain conditions. The Devils Lake crisis provides an opportunity to assess the descriptive and predictive value of three competing theories: (a) that non-state actors are an increasingly visible and powerful presence in international relations; (b) that the United States, as hegemon, can do what it wants and bend the law to its will; and (c) that international institutions such as the IJC can be considered to act as either agents or trustees for the state(s) that create them. I conclude that the first two theories fail to accurately or completely explain why the Devils Lake dispute played out as it did. As for recent theories debating whether international institutions operate more like agents or trustees, I find neither label alone explains the IJC's relationship with the United States. But, by selecting those characteristics of agents and trustees that best reflect the IJC's actual construction and operation - i.e., a hybrid approach - I can generate a relatively accurate explanation for why the United States refused an IJC reference on Devils Lake when it did, along with a nuanced assessment of how the IJC may operate in the future. Adopting a hybridized approach has the added benefit of engaging recent scholarship on agents and trustees constructively. It suggests both agent and trustee characterizations might suffer from oversimplification and require further elaboration or adjustment to apply to many existing international institutions.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".