Using Finite Forkable DEVS for Decision-Making Based on Time Measured with Uncertainty
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The time-line in Discrete Event Simulation (DES) is a sequence of events defined in a numerable subset of R+. When it comes from an experimental measurement, the timing of these events has a limited precision. This precision is usually well-known and documented for each instruments and procedures used for collecting experimental datas. Therefore, these instruments and procedures produce measurement results expressed using values each associated with an uncertainty quantification, given by uncertainty intervals. Tools have been developed in Continuous Systems modeling for deriving the uncertainty intervals of the final results corresponding to the propagation of the uncertainty intervals being evaluated. These tools cannot be used in DES as they are defined, and no alternative tools that would apply to DES have been developed yet. In this paper, we propose simulation algorithms, based on the Discrete Event System Specification (DEVS) formalism, that can be used to simulate and obtain every possible output and state trajectories of simulations that receive input values with uncertainty quantification. Then, we present a subclass of DEVS models, called Finite Forkable DEVS (FF-DEVS), that can be simulated by the proposed algorithms. This subclass ensures that the simulation is forking only a finite number of processes for each simulation step. Finally, we discuss the simulation of a traffic light model and show the trajectories obtained when it is subject to input uncertainty.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".