Risk Measures under a Stochastic Volatility Model with a Mixture-of-Normal Error Distribution
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper constructs Value at Risk (VaR) measures from a stochastic volatility model with a discrete bivariate mixture-of-normal error distribution - henceforth SV-MN. This volatility-gnerating model is able to accommodate many of the salient features of financial asset returns, such as time-varying volatility, volatility clustering, excess skewness and kurtosis in the return distribution. In addition, it is also able to capture the so-called leverage effect prominent in many asset returns in the equity market. Three sets of Monte-Carlo simulations are conducted to assess the performances of the constructed VaR measures relative to those generated from other competing models. The results show that the VaR measures constructed from the SV-MN model perform well under different data generating processes. We also apply our proposed model to S&P 500 and CRSP stock indices. We find that the empirical VaR measures obtained from our SV-MN model also perform very well relative to those generated from other competing models for the sample return data examined in this paper.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.019 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".