Abstract: Future treeline migration based on past radial tree growth, Jasper National Park, Alberta
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The main objective of the project was to determine how future meadow habitat will evolve in the next 100 years in a representative mountain environment in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. A vegetation analysis of the Maligne Pass area of Jasper National Park was used to assess how treeline has changed over the past 100 years, and this baseline information was used to predict potential changes in the next 100 years. We mapped and obtained core and disc samples from representative trees in a 3000 square m centerline plot. Trees were counted and classifi ed as seedling (shorter than 0.5m), sapling (between 0.5m and 1.5m) or tree (taller than 1.5m). In total 534 trees were assessed within the grid, as well as their spatial characteristics. A climate/tree-ring analysis found that growing season temperatures were the most important factor relating to radial growth. Based on this assessment, future predictions of treeline migration were generated from data available from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling. In Maligne Pass, results indicate that no accelerated change in treeline migration will occur in the next 100 years. Instead the major shift in treeline position that occurred at the end of the Little Ice Age in the region (ca. late1860s) is seen as the most abrupt threshold change in the treeline position.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".