Stock Price Prediction in Undirected Graphs Using a Structural Support Vector Machine
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Business analytics techniques help mine and analyze business/financial data. For instance, a structural support vector machine (SSVM) can be used to perform classification on complex inputs such as the nodes of a graph structure. We connect collaborating companies in the information technology sector in an undirected graph and use an SSVM to predict positive or negative movement in their stock prices. By using a minimum graph-cutting algorithm to drive the cutting plane optimization problem of the SSVM, an exact solution is achieved in polynomial time. The learned model exploits the associative relationship between the prices of the collaborating companies to outperform the accuracy of a regular SVM. Experiments were conducted using the companies in the Standard and Poor's 500-45 Information Technology Sector index. Trades based on the learned model achieved superior returns in the range of 10% to 17% while tracking the index alone over the same time periods yielded returns in the range of -17% to 9%.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".