Are brown trout replacing or displacing bull trout populations in a changing climate?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Understanding how climate change may facilitate species turnover is an important step in identifying potential conservation strategies. We used data from 33 sites in western Montana to quantify climate associations with native bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) and non-native brown trout (Salmo trutta) abundance and population growth rates (λ). We estimated λ using exponential growth state-space models and delineated study sites based on bull trout use for either spawning and rearing (SR) or foraging, migrating, and overwintering (FMO) habitat. Bull trout abundance was negatively associated with mean August stream temperatures within SR habitat (r = −0.75). Brown trout abundance was generally highest at temperatures between 12 and 14 °C. We found bull trout λ were generally stable at sites with mean August temperature below 10 °C but significantly decreasing, rare, or extirpated at 58% of the sites with temperatures exceeding 10 °C. Brown trout λ were highest in SR and sites with temperatures exceeding 12 °C. Declining bull trout λ at sites where brown trout were absent suggest brown trout are likely replacing bull trout in a warming climate.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".