Essays on the Relationships between Foreign Direct Investment, International Trade, and Exchange Rate Volatility
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade play key roles in enhancing global technology transfer, fostering economic growth, and the increasing integration of the global economy. A country's market maturity level and export platform status are particularly important in determining the amount of FDI andtrade that a country receives. This dissertation focuses on the host market characteristics, the FDI-trade interaction, and how exchange rate risk affects a nation's bilateral trade volume.\nThe first essay examines whether FDI is a complement or a substitute to the bilateral trade (export sales) and the extent to which FDI-trade relationship is affected by the host's market characteristics. In addition to examining the same problem at a disaggregated industry level, the second essay examines theallocation of industry-specific manufacturing FDI across different host countries. Both essays, respectively, use country- and industry-specific Japanese bilateral trade and outward FDI (establishment counts and values) into geographically and economically diverse host nations. Results from the aggregate country-level analysis show that Japanese FDI and export sales during 1989-1999 were complementary. However, the results are sensitive to host's maturity level and export platform status. Results from industry-level analysis show that the relationship between Japanese manufacturing FDI and trade is industry specific. For example, while Japanese outward FDI complements industry specific export sales in food, beverage and tobacco industries, in wood products, furniture, and basic metal manufacturing industries, it substitutes export sales.\nThe third essay investigates the effects of real exchange rate volatility due to shocks in both the fundamental and the microstructure component of the exchange rate on the volume of imports. Empirical results based on monthly bilateral trade data between the U.S., Canada, Germany and Hong Kong indicate that volatility in exchange rate due to shocks in the microstructure aspect of the exchange market has a trade depressing impact. The effect of volatility inthe fundamental exchange rate on the volume of trade, on the other hand, is mixed, suggesting the possibility that importers of different commodity groups treat the effect of exchange risk in the fundamental component on their trading activities differently.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.009 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".