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Record W2278043303

VAR 모형을 이용한 토지시장의 가격예측

2015· article· ko· W2278043303 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
김동환

Bibliographic record

Venue대한부동산학회지 · 2015
Typearticle
Languageko
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicEnergy and Environmental Systems
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsEconomicsGranger causalityEconometricsStock (firearms)Yield (engineering)Stock marketReal gross domestic productGovernment bondInterest rateQuarter (Canadian coin)Error correction modelReal interest rateLand priceFinancial economicsMonetary economicsMacroeconomicsCointegrationAgricultural economicsGeography
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

This study aims at making a short-term forecasting model in order to analyze short-term trend in Korean land market, using the land price fluctuation rate of nationwide data issued by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport from the first quarter of 1987 to the first quarter of 2015. VECM model is used to predict the fluctuation rate of land from the first quarter of 2015 and the first quarter of 2017. The variables using the VECM model are nationwide average fluctuation rate in land prices as well as real GDP growth rate, CPI, yield of corporate bonds, rate of stock price rise and M3 in endogenous variables. As a result of Granger Sims Causality Test, using fluctuation rate of land price, real GDP growth rate, CPI, yield of corporate bonds, stock price, M3 permits for real GDP growth rate, yield of corporate bonds. Fluctuation rate of land price in 2015 is forecasted to be rised at 2.43% and 2.54% in 2016. Since land has distinct characteristics and economics situations such as locational stillness and various usabilities, the analysis results of land market nationwide does not actually lead to the accurate forecasting of land prices. Therefore, sub-markets characterized by regions and various usabilities need to be considered for researches. Any research on land market in connection with economics situations and government policies such as finances, taxes etc. will lead to more reliable forecasting results in the next researches.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.003
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.013
Threshold uncertainty score0.031

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.003
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0020.002
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0090.003

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.038
GPT teacher head0.269
Teacher spread0.231 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2015
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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