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Record W2281597770

Geostatistical risk analysis of static and dynamic crime

2010· dissertation· en· W2281597770 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Nikki Lynn Filipuzzi

Bibliographic record

VenueSummit (Simon Fraser University) · 2010
Typedissertation
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicCrime Patterns and Interventions
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsEconometricsComputer scienceRisk analysis (engineering)EconomicsBusiness
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The Geography of Crime has a history in criminology that repeatedly finds a clustering of crime in time and space. Research in this field explores spatio-temporal patterning by studying who commits crimes, and why and when they commit crimes more in some parts of a city. Research finds a level of stability for many crimes. This thesis uses reported assault and break-and-enter crimes in Regina to explore in more depth the spatial-temporal patterns of crime and to develop and use hazard-risk modelling to improve methods of predicting future crime concentrations. Specifically, in order to explore and improve current hazard-risk models in criminology, new software was created for this thesis (Crime Risk Assessment Software) in order to generate a geostatistical risk model of two crime types, assault and break-and-enter (dynamic and static, respectively), to determine whether geostatistics, specifically Kriging techniques, could create strong predictive risk surfaces of these crimes. Through this exploratory spatio-temporal research, it was believed that after buildling and testing the model, statistics would reveal that the Kriging model would more accurately predict static crime than it would dynamic crime owing to the mobility issue of the crimes chosen (e.g., assault can happen anywhere spatially whereas break-and-enter can only occur at a static location such as a residence). Using examples provided by the Regina Police Service (RPS) in Saskatchewan, Canada, from assault and break-and-enter data gathered over the period from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2005, both the Kriging risk models and the Crime Risk Assessment software demonstrated successful application in depicting spatially clustered data consistent with Geography of Crime Geography of Crime research.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.858
Threshold uncertainty score0.998

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0030.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.013
GPT teacher head0.296
Teacher spread0.283 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations1
Published2010
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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