An Evaluation of the Effects of Climate Variability on the Size of Wild North American Duck Eggs from 1859-2010
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Recent climate change modeling predicts future climates in many areas of the world will be warmer, and that these areas may experience more frequent extreme weather events. If egg size, like clutch size, is affected by environmental conditions during the nesting season then production and regional duck populations may also be affected because larger eggs result in larger ducklings which experience higher survival rates than smaller ducklings. The effect of past climate variability on North American duck species has not been addressed prior to this research. This study provides empirical baseline data on current, recent, and historic duck egg size metrics from measurements conducted in the United States and Canada during recent field research (N=36,775 eggs) and from measurements of museum specimens (N=30,762) of 34 wild North American duck species. These egg metrics were obtained from eggs collected or measured on site at various locations in Canada or the United States from 1859-2010. Digital calipers were used to obtain maximum egg length and width/breadth (± 0.01 mm) for fresh (incubated) eggs in field studies and from intact (blown) egg shells in museum collections. Egg volume (cm3) was estimated using the equation [0.51*LW2] (Hoyt 1979). Average egg size metrics (mean and standard deviations) for 67,537 eggs have been synthesized, cataloged and compared to previously published measurements for each species. Runt eggs, which are less than 75% of the mean egg volume for a species, were documented for 28 duck species, of which five species had not previously been reported. Total occurrence of runt eggs was 0.78% in the entire dataset (N=67,537), and varied by species from 0-8.7%. A set of a-priori generalized additive models were used to explore the correlations between egg metrics (i.e., length, width, and volume) and spring (March, April and May) weather, Palmer Drought Severity Index values, EPA ecological region, and year. Egg volume of 82% of the 34 duck species studied were significantly different between years, 82% varied due to average monthly weather conditions, 67% varied between ecological regions, and 73.5% varied relative to Palmer Drought Severity Index values. The results of this study indicate that wild duck egg size varies through time and across geographic regions, and also suggests that egg size variability is related to changes in environmental conditions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".