Sustainable road safety : development, transference and application of community-based macro-level collision prediction models
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The enormous social and economic burden imposed on society by road collision injuries is a major global problem. As a result, it is of ongoing interest of governments to discover ways of reducing this burden. The traditional engineering approach has been to address road safety in reaction to existing collision histories. While this approach has proven to be very successful, road safety authorities are also pursuing more proactive engineering approaches. Rather than working reactively to improve the safety of existing facilities, the proactive engineering approach focuses on improving the safety of planned facilities. Proactive programs rely heavily on reliable empirical techniques, including macro-level collision prediction models (CPMs). The three objectives of this research were to: 1. Develop community-based macro-level CPMs for the Capital Regional District (CRD) in BC, Canada and the City of Ottawa in Ontario, Canada. 2. Perform a road safety evaluation of the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) recently promoted Fused Grid model for sustainable subdivision development. 3. Use these models to conduct a Black Spot analysis of each region. Results were in line with intuitive expectations of each objective. First, following the recommended development and transferability guidelines, 64 community-based macro-level CPMs were successfully developed for the CRD and City of Ottawa. These models can be used by community planners and engineers as a decision-support tool in proactive road safety improvement programs. Second, the safety level of five road network patterns was evaluated using these macro-level CPMs. It was concluded that the 3-way offset and Fused Grid road networks were the safest over all, followed by the cul-de-sac and Dutch SRS road networks. The grid network was the least safe road pattern. Finally, black spot studies were also conducted, and four black spots were selected for in-depth analysis on diagnosing safety problems, and evaluating possible remedies. The results of this research demonstrate the potential of community-based, macro-level CPMs as new empirical tools for road safety planners and engineers to conduct proactive analyses, promote more sustainable development patterns, and reduce the road collision burden on communities worldwide.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".