The Prognostic Value of Percentage Total Plaque Score Adjusted to Age
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Total plaque score (TPS) on coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) has been validated as a surrogate measure of coronary artery disease (CAD) burden and is prognostic. We propose a novel measure, percentage TPS adjusted to age (%TPS/age), that may reflect vascular age and potentially more rapidly progressive atherosclerosis and evaluate its potential prognostic value. METHODS: %TPS/age was calculated for consecutive patients prospectively enrolled into our institutional CCTA registry and evaluated for primary composite outcome of cardiac death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and late revascularization. RESULTS: Of 1896 patients identified (mean age 57.7 ± 11.4 years, 50.1% male, median follow-up 18.6 months [interquartile range: 15.3, 32.4]), 552 (29%) had %TPS/age = 0 (no atherosclerosis), with 1 (0.2%) primary outcome observed (annual event rate [AER] = 0.1%). Two events (0.4%, AER = 0.3%) were observed in %TPS/age < 0.314 category, 22 (5.0%, AER = 2.2%) in %TPS/age 0.314 to 0.699 category, and 54 (12.0%, AER = 5.7%) in %TPS/age ≥ 0.700 category. After adjusting for clinical predictors and obstructive CAD, higher %TPS/age category was associated with hazard ratio 1.95 (1.31-2.88, P < .001) for primary outcome on multivariable analysis, Harrell-C-Statistic 0.87 (confidence interval 95%: 0.84-0.90), and net reclassification improvement of 0.71 ( P < .001). CONCLUSION: %TPS/Age has incremental prognostic value to traditional risk factors and CCTA measures of CAD and improves evaluation of burden of coronary atherosclerosis and clinical risk.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it