Transitions at Different Moments in Time: A Spatial Probit Approach
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Summary This paper adopts a spatial probit approach to explain interaction effects among cross‐sectional units when the dependent variable takes the form of a binary response variable and transitions from state 0 to 1 occur at different moments in time. The model has two spatially lagged variables: one for units that are still in state 0 and one for units that had already transferred to state 1. The parameters are estimated on observations for those units that are still in state 0 at the start of the different time periods, whereas observations on units after they transferred to state 1 are discarded, just as in the literature on duration modeling. Furthermore, neighboring units that had not yet transferred may have a different impact from units that had already transferred. We illustrate our approach with an empirical study of the adoption of inflation targeting for a sample of 58 countries over the period 1985–2008. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it