The Economic Downturn And Its Lingering Effects Reduced Medicare Spending Growth By $4 Billion In 2009–12
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Previous work has found a strong connection between the most recent economic recession and reductions in private health spending. However, the effect of economic downturns on Medicare spending is less clear. In contrast to studies involving earlier time periods, our study found that when the macroeconomy slowed during the Great Recession of 2007-09, so did Medicare spending growth. A small (14 percent) but significant share of the decline in Medicare spending growth from 2009 to 2012 relative to growth from 2004 to 2009 can be attributed to lingering effects of the recession. Absent the economic downturn, Medicare spending would have been $4 billion higher in 2009-12. A major reason for the relatively small impact of the macroeconomy is the relative lack of labor-force participation among people ages sixty-five and older. We estimate that if they had been working at the same rate as the nonelderly before the recession, the effect of the downturn on Medicare spending growth would have been twice as large.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".