Probabilistic Opacity in Refinement-Based Modeling
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Given a probabilistic transition system (PTS) $\cal A$ partially observed by an attacker, and an $ω$-regular predicate $φ$over the traces of $\cal A$, measuring the disclosure of the secret $φ$ in $\cal A$ means computing the probability that an attacker who observes a run of $\cal A$ can ascertain that its trace belongs to $φ$. In the context of refinement, we consider specifications given as Interval-valued Discrete Time Markov Chains (IDTMCs), which are underspecified Markov chains where probabilities on edges are only required to belong to intervals. Scheduling an IDTMC $\cal S$ produces a concrete implementation as a PTS and we define the worst case disclosure of secret $φ$ in ${\cal S}$ as the maximal disclosure of $φ$ over all PTSs thus produced. We compute this value for a subclass of IDTMCs and we prove that refinement can only improve the opacity of implementations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".