Replacement of multiyear sea ice and changes in the open water season duration in the <scp>B</scp>eaufort <scp>S</scp>ea since 2004
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The last decade has witnessed the nine lowest Arctic September sea ice extents in the observational record. It also forms the most recent third of the long‐term trend in that record, which reached −13.4% decade −1 in 2015. While hemispheric analyses paint a compelling picture of sea ice loss across the Arctic, the situation with multiyear ice in the Beaufort Sea is particularly dire. This study was undertaken in light of substantial changes that have occurred in the extent of summer multiyear sea ice in the Arctic inferred from the passive microwave record. To better elucidate these changes at a sub‐regional scale, we use data from the Canadian Ice Service archive, the most direct observations of sea ice stage‐of‐development available. We also build upon the only previous sea ice climatological analysis for Canada's western Arctic region by sea ice stage‐of‐development that ended in 2004. The annual evolution of sea ice by stage of development in Canada's western Arctic changed dramatically between 1983 and 2014. The rate of these changes and their spatial prevalence were most prominent in the last decade. In summer, total sea ice loss occurred via reductions in old and first‐year sea ice over increasingly large areas and over more months per year. Resultant delay of thermodynamic freeze up has increased the annual open water duration in the study region. The winter sea ice cover was increasingly composed of first‐year sea ice at the expense of old ice. Breakup timing has not significantly changed in the region.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".