Robust online algorithm for adaptive linear regression parameter estimation and prediction
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this article, we focus on adaptive linear regression methods and propose a new technique. The article begins with a review of the online passive aggressive algorithm (OPAA), an adaptive linear regression algorithm from the machine learning literature. We highlight the strengths and weaknesses of OPAA and compare it with other popular adaptive regression techniques such as moving window and recursive least squares, recursive partial least squares, and just‐in‐time or locally weighted regression. Modifications to OPAA are proposed to make it more robust and better suited for industrial soft‐sensor applications. The new algorithm is called smoothed passive aggressive algorithm (SPAA), and like OPAA, it follows a cautious parameter update strategy but is more robust. The trade‐off between SPAA's computation complexity and accuracy can be easily controlled by manipulating just two tuning parameters. We also demonstrate that the SPAA framework is quite flexible and a number of variants are easily formulated. Application of SPAA to estimate the time‐varying parameters of a numerically simulated autoregressive with exogenous terms (ARX) model and to predict the Reid vapor pressure of the bottoms flow from an industrial column demonstrates its superior performance over OPAA and comparable performance with the other popular algorithms. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it