SIMULATING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON A COASTAL AQUIFER, SUMMERSIDE, PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Prince Edward Island stands unique in Canada for its almost total reliance on groundwater resources for its domestic, industrial, and municipal water needs. Similarly, the province is unique in that this groundwater reserve is hydraulically connected to the sea. As a result of past anthropogenic induced pumping stresses and due to the typical low lying topography of the island, saltwater intrusion has historically been observed. The aim of this case study is to compile a range of geological, geophysical, geochemical, and hydrological data and analysis to create a robust variable-density groundwater flow and transport model. After calibration, this model will be utilized to estimate submarine groundwater discharge and predict the influence of climate change on the coastal aquifer. To determine the influence of climate change and potential future changes in the coastal environment, the regional groundwater model simulates flow towards the coast under three different emission scenarios simulated by the regional climate model PRECIS and a multi-model ensemble approach. The results of these simulations are then compared to base-line, calibrated conditions in order to determine and predict the influence of pumping rates, sea level rise and climate induced changes in recharge rates on the coastal aquifer. From these simulations predictions may be made as to the relative effect of climate change and anthropogenic influences on the dual processes of saltwater intrusion and submarine groundwater discharge for Summerside, Prince Edward Island. Modelling results indicate that climate change, as predicted by the climate simulations conducted in this study will have little impact on the coastal groundwater processes of the study site. Projected sea-level rise simulations lead to significant intrusion events (30-60 m), however, increases in precipitation rates and ultimately groundwater recharge act to mitigate these changes in the saltwaterfreshwater interface. When compared to groundwater pumping simulations, it was shown that heavy groundwater pumping was the dominant factor in future water security for the study site and not climate change.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".